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For most of Chicago Fire Season 13, Episode 8 “Quicksand” it feels like the Joe Cruz (Joe Minoso) storyline is just setup that will not be paid off in this episode. Sure, there’s a sense of danger when he finds a bullet in his locket, and then one hanging from his car window, but that’s all it is. At least, until the show throws it back to old-time Chicago Fire and brings back a storyline for Cruz that will only make sense if you’re a hardcore fan.

The bullet ties to Cruz’s brother, Leon, and his former affiliation with the gang the Insane Kings. In order to protect his brother, Cruz left the gang leader of the Insane Kings, Flaco, to burn alive. Yes, exactly as you read it, burn alive. And now, Flaco’s cousin is out of jail and he wants revenge on Cruz. Which, when you consider burning alive, makes a lot of sense. At the end of the episode, he confronts Cruz at church before the screen fades to black.

Chicago Fire doesn’t return until January 8, and the promo for the upcoming episode doesn’t give too much away, but there’s no doubt that Cruz is in danger. And the show pulling out a storyline from the earlier seasons means it wants to make an impression. At this point, most people had forgotten about the Insane Kings, much less Flaco. What are the odds Flaco’s cousin, who just got out of jail wants to catch up with Cruz? Slim to none.

But what are the odds Chicago Fire pulls the trigger and actually kills Cruz? Also slim to none. This show is no stranger to killing characters, but they’ve mostly died during calls. And in a way, that makes sense. If you’re a firefighter show and you want to kill a character, you do so in a heroic way. Plus, Joe Minoso has given no indication he wants to leave the show, so writing off Cruz right now makes very little sense. This doesn’t mean he isn’t in danger-and that we shouldn’t spend the hiatus wondering what will happen with him next. Will this guy try to blackmail him? Threaten him? Is this a continuing storyline?

All good options. But if anyone’s in immediate danger of leaving Chicago Fire, the odds are on David Eigenberg, who plays Christopher Herrmann. The mid-season finale ends with Mouch (Christian Stolte) taking the Lieutenant exam and Herrmann taking the Captain exam. If he passes, there’s still some time before he can take the next exam and be at the same level as Pascal. If Mouch passes, he’s got no spot. Can they both pass their exams and still stay at Firehouse 51, considering Chief Pascal (Dermot Mulroney) is just starting to fit in? Probably not. But what else is the show going to do?

Whatever happens, it’s likely someone is exiting Chicago Fire soon. And as much as Joe Cruz is in danger, he is actually the least likely one, because his death wouldn’t solve any of the other logistical issues. But Mouch could take a Lieutenant spot somewhere else, Herrmann could go be Captain or later Chief somewhere else, or Pascal could leave so Firehouse 51 remains in the and of those who have been around all along. It doesn’t look like there are any other options.